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The first half of 2024 has seen a significant recovery for Manhattan office space owners, with tenants signing 11.5 million square feet of leases, 11% more than in 2023. This recovery is attributed to more active requirements in the market and a better sense of more leasing on the horizon. Around 2 million square feet of office space was earmarked for conversion in the quarter, reducing vacant office space from 17.5% in Q1 to 17% in Q2. Buildings taken off the market during the quarter include 1740 Broadway, which Yellowstone bought for $185M after former owner Blackstone handed the keys to its lender. Other examples include SL Green's 750 Third Ave., a 35-story Midtown Manhattan tower the REIT plans to turn into more than 500 units of housing, and the residential conversion of Pfizer's former headquarters.
Relocations made up 60% of the leasing activity for the month, with the largest deal during the past three months being a major tenant staying in place. The city's declining office availability fell from 87.8 million square feet to 86.5 million square feet citywide in the second quarter, now sitting at 18.1%. However, overall activity shows that New York City's office market has a long road ahead, with vacancy at twice the levels of a normal market, owners of nearly 90 million square feet looking for tenants, and the future of work and the economy still uncertain.
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Private equity giant is growing its footprint at its Plaza District building
New York City has seen a surge in office leases, with several companies expanding their presence in the city's five boroughs. Blackstone, Industrious, Covington & Burling, Stripe, Herrick Feinstein, Susquehanna International Group, Imagine Me Leadership Charter School, Hines, Maimonides Medical Center, HSBC, and Maimonides Health have all signed new leases in the city's largest office spaces. Blackstone has expanded its lease in the Plaza District building, taking over space from WeWork.
Industrious has taken over space from WeWork, while Covington & Burling has signed a new sublease in the Hudson Yards building. Stripe has relocated from 199 Water Street to 28 Liberty Street, while Herrick Feinstein has signed a new sublease in the Financial District building. The firm's total footprint in the building has decreased, but it still ranks on the list of NYC's largest last month. The flexible workspace platform Hines has signed a new lease in the Tribeca building, while Maimonides Medical Center has signed a new lease in the Kensington building.
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Latest Findings Indicate Stabilized Hybrid Office Attendance Expectations
CBRE Americas Consulting has tracked office policies for over 340 U.S. companies since January 2023 to understand the evolving expectations on office show-up and identify shifts in policies. Organizations now expect employees to work two to four days per week, with 99% having office space available. Variations exist in attendance policy based on industry, with technology and professional services companies most likely to have remote-centric policies.
Companies with full-time office or hybrid policies have the lowest average turnover rates, while those with employee choice and the small number of fully remote companies have higher turnover rates. Hybrid companies use various guidelines to implement their policies, emphasizing the importance of articulating the value of the office and providing training and workplace experience investments.
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More regional lenders will go under, experts say, and real estate is bracing for impact
Commercial real estate, particularly office properties, is facing a distress shaking that could lead to the collapse of small and midsize banks that have been essential lenders to the industry. Economists agree that due to rising rates, declining asset values, and banks' hesitancy to mark their loans to market, such failures are a certainty. The question is whether bigger banks and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation can stop collapses from spinning into crisis. A contraction this significant will permanently alter the lending landscape for landlords and investors. Commercial real estate (CRE) loan exposure is out of date, leading to a potential increase in CRE concentration ratios. If banks were to mark these loans to market, financial statements would show more banks without adequate capital to cover losses on CRE loans.
Accounting for mark-to-market loan losses and unrecognized losses on banks' securities or investments, 2,916 banks with excessive exposure were found. However, high CRE concentration doesn't mean failure is imminent, as private lenders have not had to show their hand. Uninsured depositors are typically the first to withdraw, and banks with a CRE concentration of 25% or more are likely to fail.
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485x boosts project potential at 1800 Park Avenue
The Durst Organization is considering selling its large development site in East Harlem after the state approved a replacement for 421a. The property at 1800 Park Avenue is primed for development with up to 682,317 ZFA depending on use. The Dursts have owned the property since 2016 and have attempted to develop it themselves. However, plans were delayed due to disputes with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the absence of tax incentives after the 421a program expired in 2022. The state introduced a replacement program, 485x, in exchange for a tax abatement up to 40 years. The Durst site is outside designated zones in Manhattan and Brooklyn and Queens, exempt from the highest wage requirements.
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US prosecutors are cracking down on commercial mortgage fraud, which has been increasing due to the rise in property loans based on doctored building financials and valuations. This type of fraud became more widespread between the mid-2010s and 2021, when commercial property prices surged to new highs. The drop in property values caused by higher interest rates and a rise in defaults is exposing more of these schemes, dealing another blow to the commercial real-estate market suffering through its worst stretch since the 2008-9 financial crisis.
Federal prosecutors are ramping up their efforts to root out fraud, often working together with investigators at the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Since last fall, at least five different landlords of properties, mostly apartment buildings, in cities including Cincinnati, Hartford, and Little Rock, Ark., have pleaded guilty to federal fraud charges. Government-backed mortgage enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are cracking down on questionable practices in their rental-apartment lending business.
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Midtown's Decoration & Design Building, home to a vast private market for interior designers, is facing a $30 million loss due to falling occupancy and a decline in net cash flow. The building, which had 130 tenants in 2015, has been delinquent on its mortgage since May 2023, and lenders may have to write off $34 million of the $156 million loan balance. A fifth of D&D tenants have leases that are month-to-month or scheduled to expire in 2024, including Stark Carpet, the largest tenant at 37,000 square feet. Ground rent rose by nearly 50% last year, to $6 million, and is scheduled to rise at an average annual rate of nearly 4%. Cohen Brothers Realty, which owns the building but not the land underneath, is also struggling with high vacancy rates. The building was once highly profitable, generating about $23 million annually in net cash flow. However, the pandemic disrupted the building's awards ceremonies and other live events, and retail remains one of the slowest sectors in New York to recover.
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Global Head of Real Estate Peter Greenspan talks landlord negotiations and next steps
WeWork, a co-working firm, has emerged from bankruptcy proceedings after a seven-month effort to right its balance sheet. The company slashed $4 billion in debt, gained an equity partner in Yardi Systems, and exited Chapter 11 with a revamped C-suite led by John Santora. WeWork's top brass spoke with 500 office owners worldwide to hash out new lease terms, resulting in a $12 billion reduction in rent obligation. The company also amended 190 buildings, reducing its overall rent obligation by $800 million a year. WeWork's global head of real estate, Peter Greenspan, explained how the negotiations played out, the biggest challenges, WeWork's leverage, and what happened when emotions ran high. The company's goal was to keep as many buildings as possible, and the company sought to downsize where it didn't need as much. WeWork's relationship with lenders can vary, with some buildings having good relationships and trust, while others have distrust. WeWork communicates directly with lenders and landlords, and in cases of foreclosure or default, we consult special servicers and receivers. WeWork's leases are protected from foreclosure, ensuring no risk of hesitancy in financial difficulties.
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